How Important are NBA Draft Picks?

According to Data from Recent Draft Classes.

As a committed NBA fan, every time I watch the NBA draft and the events that surround it; superstars get traded for bundles of draft picks. This made me wonder the true worth of a draft pick, and how it varies throughout the first round. For example, regarding the 2019 Clippers and Thunder trade, is trading Paul George for 7 draft picks a good deal? In order to find the answer to this question, I had to research 9 draft classes in recent years to search out the trends of how picks tend to pan in the league. 

First, I picked the drafts from 2011 to 2019 as each of the players have had at least five seasons to mature in the league. Then, I split up each individual draft’s first round into five groups of 6. In each draft range, I created 4 categories to measure the success of the draft picks in a given range. These four categories were: if they played 5+ seasons in the league, were an all-star, a MVP, or a NBA champion. 5+ seasons in the league serves as my foundational metric to determine if a player became a serviceable role player in the NBA. Being an all-star is my metric to determine if a pick was a “hit”. Similarly, a player becoming an MVP solidifies them as a generational player. Lastly, I chose being an NBA champion as a metric to justify accomplishment for any player in the league. Even though winning a championship doesn’t necessarily make you a great player, analyzing this metric in the draft will give us valuable knowledge of which picks tend to contribute to winning teams. Then, I used this data to find the proportion of each category for each draft range.

As you can see above in the graphs, almost every pick in the range 1-12 plays at least 5 years in the league. This means they are serviceable role players for a period of time in the NBA. This makes sense as the “lottery” of the NBA draft almost ensures a player that can contribute at an NBA level. On top of this, the data proves why top 5, and top 3 protected picks exist as almost 40% of top 5 picks become all-stars in their career compared to the other ranges of the draft not even touching 10%. This clear distinction exhibits why high draft picks are so valuable. 

A surprising statistic from the data shows that mid-first round picks, picks 19-24, have an 80% chance to play for 5 years in the league, but with none being all-stars. This range sticks out to be the safest place to pick outside of the lottery,but with least upside. Lastly, the data displays that the most champions have come from the very beginning of the draft and the very end of the first round. This makes sense as the contending teams draft at the end of the first round, while the top talents get drafted first and can help bring home a championship. Everywhere else in the draft, the likelihood of a champion is cut in half.

With countless trades going down in the NBA every season, and this new knowledge of how picks pan out in the league, I think that trading multiple first rounders for a superstar player isn't a great move if you don’t get a player that can help you win in return. Picks outside the top 5 in the modern NBA are over valued, as the chances of hitting big on these draft picks are extremely slim. In conclusion, rebuilding teams that need to get a haul for their star players, should look toward acquiring younger talent that have already proven themselves over the possibility of hitting the jackpot in the NBA draft.